The Frequency Distribution of NFL Final Margins
In football, points are scored in discrete increments: 3 points for a field goal and 7 points for a touchdown with an extra point. Over decades of NFL data, the final margin of victory clusters heavily around specific milestones:
• 3 points: ~15.2% of games • 7 points: ~9.8% of games • 6 points: ~6.1% of games • 10 points: ~5.9% of games
This means crossing from -3.5 to -2.5, or catching +3.5 instead of +2.5, is worth significantly more than crossing between 11.5 and 12.5.
💡 Never pay standard vigorish on a -3.5 line if you can buy the half-point or leverage alternative spread ladders inside the SharpsEdge terminal.